FixHealthCarePolicy

How the Health Care Bill Will Affect Maine

The Lewin Group, a highly respected health care policy and management consulting firm, produced a report that analyzes the impact of the American Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 (H.R. 3200) for a select group of states such as Maine.

In its analysis of Maine, Lewin presents data estimating the impact of the bill, assuming eligibility to the exchange is open to all employers beginning in year three, on sources of coverage and potential changes in physician and hospital income. The highlights of the report on Maine are as follows:

- 72 percent of privately insured Maine residents would transition out of private insurance.
- 78 percent of Maine residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance.
- 86 percent of Maine residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan.
- 32 percent of the uninsured in Maine would still lack coverage.
- Physicians in Maine would see their net annual income decline by $271.7 million, with an average loss in income of $55,692 per physician.
- Hospitals in Maine could see their net annual income fall by $694.4 million, with hospital total margins dropping to -12.1 percent.

Lewin estimates that there will be about 129,600 uninsured people in Maine in 2011. The chart below presents their estimates of the impact of the health care bill on coverage assuming the exhcnage is extended to all firms as is permitted under the bill.

Changes in Source of Coverage under the American Affordable Health Choices Act in Maine in 2011

Once the program is implemented, the number of uninsured people would be reduced by 87,700 people. New enrollment in the expanded Medicaid program would increase by only 13,700 people because the program currently covers parents up to 150 percent of federal poverty level (FPL) and childless adults to 125 percent of FPL. The report estimates that 24,500 current enrollees would become covered by employers who start to offer coverage in response to the mandate. Thus, net Medicaid enrollment would decline by abount 10,800 people.

Read the full report on the impact of the health care bill on Maine