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July 28, 2009The Lewin Group’s National & State Analyses of the July 15 Draft of the American Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009
The Heritage Foundation commissioned The Lewin Group, a highly respected health care policy and management consulting firm, to examine the impact of the American Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 (H.R. 3200).
Among other provisions, the bill would create a new public plan, modeled on Medicare, to compete with private health plans in a newly established health insurance exchange. In addition to national results, Lewin produced local level impacts of the draft legislation for a select group of states, which include Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Maine. In Maine, the impact of the health care bill on private coverage, the uninsured, physicians and hospitals is as follows:
- 72 percent of privately insured Maine residents would transition out of private insurance.
- 78 percent of Maine residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance.
- 86 percent of Maine residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan.
- 32 percent of the uninsured in Maine would still lack coverage.
- Physicians in Maine would see their net annual income decline by $271.7 million, with an average loss in income of $55,692 per physician.
- Hospitals in Maine could see their net annual income fall by $694.4 million, with hospital total margins dropping to -12.1 percent.
Montana. In Montana, the impact of the health care bill on private coverage, the uninsured, physicians and hospitals is as follows:
- 52 percent of privately insured Montana residents would transition out of private insurance.
- 62 percent of Montana residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance.
- 80 percent of Montana residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan.
- 32 percent of the uninsured in Montana would still lack coverage.
- Physicians in Montana could see their net annual income decline by $36.6 million, an average loss in income of $13,877 per physician.
- Hospitals in Montana could have their net annual income fall by about $268.5 million, with hospital total margins dropping to -4 percent.
Nebraska. In Nebraska, the impact of the health care bill on private coverage, the uninsured, physicians and hospitals is as follows:
- 65 percent of privately insured Nebraska residents would transition out of private insurance.
- 71 percent of Nebraska residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance.
- 84 percent of Nebraska residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan.
- 31 percent of the uninsured in Nebraska would still lack coverage.
- Physicians in Nebraska could see their net annual income decline by $230.7 million, an average loss in income of $44,953 per physician.
- Hospitals in Nebraska could have their net annual income fall by about $753.6 million, with hospital total margins dropping to -3.9 percent.
New Mexico. In New Mexico, the impact of the health care bill on private coverage, the uninsured, physicians and hospitals is as follows:
- 45 percent of privately insured New Mexico residents would transition out of private insurance.
- 51 percent of New Mexico residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance.
- 82 percent of New Mexico residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan.
- 49 percent of the uninsured in New Mexico would still lack coverage.
- Physicians in New Mexico could see their net annual income decline by $136.7 million, as a consequence of the new public plan.
- Hospitals in New Mexico could have their net annual income fall by about $314.6 million, with hospital total margins dropping to 1 percent.
Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, the impact of the health care bill on private coverage, the uninsured, physicians and hospitals is as follows:
- 51 percent of privately insured Pennsylvania residents would transition out of private insurance.
- 59 percent of Pennsylvania residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance.
- 32 percent of Pennsylvania residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan.
- 49 percent of the uninsured in Pennsylvania would still lack coverage.
- Physicians in Pennsylvania could see their net annual income decline by $321.4 million, an average loss in income of $6,480 per physician.
- Hospitals in Pennsylvania could have their net annual income fall by about $2.7 billion, with hospital total margins dropping to -1.6 percent.
Virginia. In Virginia, the impact of the health care bill on private coverage, the uninsured, physicians and hospitals is as follows:
- 55 percent of privately insured Virginia residents would transition out of private insurance.
- 60 percent of Virginia residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance.
- 84 percent of Virginia residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan.
- 29 percent of the uninsured in Virginia would still lack coverage.
- Physicians in Virginia could see their net annual income decline by $350.2 million, an average loss in income of $14,537 per physician.
- Hospitals in Virginia could have their net annual income fall by about $2 billion, with hospital total margins dropping to -3.5 percent.
Tags: American Affordable Health Choices Act, Lewin Group, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia
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